I've often mused on the next generation of gaming hardware and what direction it might be heading, and if that direction conflicts with what I personally want with the industry and/or what I think would be good for the industry, so bear with me as I toss out a few rough ideas.
Here are a few key points to elaborate on later: 3D, physics processing, facial recognition and the emergence of actors, display paradigms, licensing, new control methods and the applications thereof, independent development and marketing, limitations of current display media/infrastructure.
Physics
First, I'll tackle physics. Ragdoll animation has been around since the late nineties. I can't quite recall when it first appeared, but it was hailed as an innovation. In a lot of ways, the implementation of physics simulation has improved the immersion of games. I'll start with the good. Half Life 2 wasn't the first, but its Source engine broke a lot of ground with physics. To this day it remains one of the few games to not only include physics but also integrate it so closely into the gameplay. Personally, the Gravity Gun may very well be my favorite weapon in any FPS. There are a few rudimentary physics puzzles that are satisfying breaks from the typical FPS action (but let's not get started on those horrid speed boat segments), and Portal takes this to an even greater level with its odd reality-warping mechanics (though I do recall a similar albeit stripped down effect in the earlier release Prey). The "Euphoria" engine gave new life to the Grand Theft Auto series, making animations of hundreds of characters smooth and believable as they fly through windshields at eighty miles per hour.
On the other hand, physics can be sloppily implemented. Take the Gamebryo engine that powers games like Oblivion and Fallout 3, for example. The graphics are detailed and beautiful (ugly faces aside), but the physics leave a lot to be desired. They are executed with some fidelity, but one must wonder why they were implemented in the first place. On one hand it makes the world seem more alive, more interactive. On the other hand, it clutters the world and makes the items that don't obey physics seem less organic, like they're nailed down. And I'm no crime scene investigator, but I don't think I've seen a single realistic death pose in a ragdoll physics enabled game. Speaking of which, in the PS3 game Demon's Souls, the bodies of slain enemies linger and flop unrealistically when approached by the player. Just by walking over a corpse, the player can kick it around like a flimsy trash bag.
Breaking the cycle
To date, consoles have usually followed a five year cycle. That is set to change now, due to a few factors. First, the economy has been sluggish worldwide. Microsoft and Sony likely wouldn't see it as wise to invest too much into research and development of new consoles when it's possible to generate more revenue with the current generation of hardware. Oddly enough, Nintendo has lead the pack here. When they designed the Wii, they used a new control scheme and cheaper, less advanced hardware to market toward a newer, wider audience. Many scoffed at this direction, but in the end the Wii outsold the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 by a substantial margin, whereas Microsoft and Sony's gaming divisions spent a substantial amount of time in the red. At this point in history, with development costs skyrocketing, more horsepower tends to mean less revenue. It's clear that Microsoft and Sony are taking a page from Nintendo's playbook and using new control methods to extend the life of their consoles. Sony's "Move" attempts to recreate the Nintendo Wii Remote motion sensing phenomenon and expand upon it with more accurate motion sensing and camera integration, but it's success has been limited at best. Microsoft has ventured into unknown territory with its controller-free motion sensor Kinect. Thanks to a modest half billion dollars in marketing, the Kinect has enjoyed a great deal more success than the Move. These technologies are still in their infancy, and time will tell if game developers and publishers are able to apply them to their fullest potential.
